119 research outputs found

    The State of the US Energy Sector

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    Optimal timing for power plant maintenance in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas in a changing climate

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    We analyzed data for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to assess shoulder seasons -- that is, the 45 days of lowest total energy use and peak demand in the spring and fall -- and whether their occurrence has changed over time. Over the period 1996--2022, the shoulder seasons never started earlier than late March nor later than mid-October, corresponding well with the minimum of total degree days. In the temperature record 1959--2022, the minimum in degree days in the spring moved earlier, from early March to early February, and in the fall moved later, from early to mid-November. Warming temperatures might cause these minima in degree days to merge into a single annual minimum in December or January by the mid-2040s, a time when there is a non-trivial risk of 1-day record energy use and peak demand from winter storms

    Dont Mess with Texas: Getting the Lone Star State to Net-Zero by 2050

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    The world is decarbonizing. Many countries, companies, and financial institutions have committed to cutting their emissions. Decarbonization commitments have been issued by: 136 countries including Canada, China, and the UK, at least 16 U.S. states including New York, Louisiana, and Virginia, and a third of the largest 2,000 publicly traded companies in the world, including Apple, Amazon, and Walmart, and numerous Texas companies like ExxonMobil, American and Southwest Airlines, Baker Hughes, and AT&T.1–9 These decarbonizing countries, states, cities, and companies are Texas's energy customers. If Texas ignores the challenge to decarbonize its economy, it may eventually face the more difficult challenge of selling carbon-intensive products to customers around the world who do not want them. We are already seeing this scenario beginning to play out with France canceling a liquified natural gas deal from Texas gas producers and both U.S. and international automakers announcing shifts to electric vehicles. Proactive net-zero emissions strategies might allow Texas to maintain energy leadership and grow the economy within a rapidly decarbonizing global marketplace.Thankfully, Texas is uniquely positioned to lead the world in the transition to a carbon-neutral energy economy. With the second highest Gross State Product in the US, the Texas economy is on par with countries like Canada, Italy, or Brazil. Thus, Texas's decisions have global implications. Texas also has an abundant resource of low-carbon energy sources to harness and a world-class workforce with technical capabilities to implement solutions at a large-scale quickly and safely. Texas has a promising opportunity to lead the world towards a better energy system in a way that provides significant economic benefits to the state by leveraging our renewable resources, energy industry expertise, and strong manufacturing and export markets for clean electricity, fuels, and products. The world is moving, with or without Texas, but it is likely to move faster--and Texas will be more prosperous--if Texans lead the way.There are many ways to fully decarbonize the Texas economy across all sectors by 2050. In this analysis, we present a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario and four possible pathways to Texas achieving state-wide net-zero emissions by 2050. Figure ES-1 provides a visual comparison of scenario conditions

    KELT-10b: The First Transiting Exoplanet from the KELT-South Survey -- A Hot Sub-Jupiter Transiting a V = 10.7 Early G-Star

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    We report the discovery of KELT-10b, the first transiting exoplanet discovered using the KELT-South telescope. KELT-10b is a highly inflated sub-Jupiter mass planet transiting a relatively bright V=10.7V = 10.7 star (TYC 8378-64-1), with Teff_{eff} = 5948±745948\pm74 K, logg\log{g} = 4.3190.030+0.0204.319_{-0.030}^{+0.020} and [Fe/H] = 0.090.10+0.110.09_{-0.10}^{+0.11}, an inferred mass M_{*} = 1.1120.061+0.0551.112_{-0.061}^{+0.055} M_{\odot} and radius R_{*} = 1.2090.035+0.0471.209_{-0.035}^{+0.047} R_{\odot}. The planet has a radius RP_{P} = 1.3990.049+0.0691.399_{-0.049}^{+0.069} RJ_{J} and mass MP_{P} = 0.6790.038+0.0390.679_{-0.038}^{+0.039} MJ_{J}. The planet has an eccentricity consistent with zero and a semi-major axis aa = 0.052500.00097+0.000860.05250_{-0.00097}^{+0.00086} AU. The best fitting linear ephemeris is T0T_{0} = 2457066.72045±\pm0.00027 BJDTDB_{TDB} and P = 4.1662739±\pm0.0000063 days. This planet joins a group of highly inflated transiting exoplanets with a radius much larger and a mass much less than those of Jupiter. The planet, which boasts deep transits of 1.4%, has a relatively high equilibrium temperature of Teq_{eq} = 137723+281377_{-23}^{+28} K, assuming zero albedo and perfect heat redistribution. KELT-10b receives an estimated insolation of 0.8170.054+0.0680.817_{-0.054}^{+0.068} ×\times 109^9 erg s1^{-1} cm2^{-2}, which places it far above the insolation threshold above which hot Jupiters exhibit increasing amounts of radius inflation. Evolutionary analysis of the host star suggests that KELT-10b is unlikely to survive beyond the current subgiant phase, due to a concomitant in-spiral of the planet over the next \sim1 Gyr. The planet transits a relatively bright star and exhibits the third largest transit depth of all transiting exoplanets with V << 11 in the southern hemisphere, making it a promising candidate for future atmospheric characterization studies.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

    TESS Discovery of an ultra-short-period planet around the nearby M dwarf LHS 3844

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    Data from the newly-commissioned \textit{Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite} (TESS) has revealed a "hot Earth" around LHS 3844, an M dwarf located 15 pc away. The planet has a radius of 1.32±0.021.32\pm 0.02 RR_\oplus and orbits the star every 11 hours. Although the existence of an atmosphere around such a strongly irradiated planet is questionable, the star is bright enough (I=11.9I=11.9, K=9.1K=9.1) for this possibility to be investigated with transit and occultation spectroscopy. The star's brightness and the planet's short period will also facilitate the measurement of the planet's mass through Doppler spectroscopy.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to ApJ Letters. This letter makes use of the TESS Alert data, which is currently in a beta test phase, using data from the pipelines at the TESS Science Office and at the TESS Science Processing Operations Cente

    GREAT3 results I: systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

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    We present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically-varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially-varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by 1\sim 1 per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the S\'{e}rsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods' results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.Comment: 32 pages + 15 pages of technical appendices; 28 figures; submitted to MNRAS; latest version has minor updates in presentation of 4 figures, no changes in content or conclusion

    Vetting of 384 TESS Objects of Interest with TRICERATOPS and Statistical Validation of 12 Planet Candidates

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    We present TRICERATOPS, a new Bayesian tool that can be used to vet and validate TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs). We test the tool on 68 TOIs that have been previously confirmed as planets or rejected as astrophysical false positives. By looking in the false positive probability (FPP) -- nearby false positive probability (NFPP) plane, we define criteria that TOIs must meet to be classified as validated planets (FPP < 0.015 and NFPP < 10^-3), likely planets (FPP 10^-1). We apply this procedure on 384 unclassified TOIs and statistically validate 12, classify 125 as likely planets, and classify 52 as likely nearby false positives. Of the 12 statistically validated planets, 9 are newly validated. TRICERATOPS is currently the only TESS vetting and validation tool that models transits from nearby contaminant stars in addition to the target star. We therefore encourage use of this tool to prioritize follow-up observations that confirm bona fide planets and identify false positives originating from nearby stars.Comment: Accepted to A

    Rapid helium isotopic variability in Mauna Kea shield lavas from the Hawaiian Scientific Drilling Project

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    Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 5 (2004): Q04G14, doi:10.1029/2002GC000439.This paper presents new magmatic helium isotopic compositions in a suite of lavas from phase II of the Hawaiian Scientific Drilling Project (HSDP2) core, which sampled Mauna Kea volcano to a maximum depth of 3098 m below sea level. Most of the measurements were performed by in vacuo crushing of olivine phenocrysts, but include submarine pillow glasses from the 2200 to 2500 meter depth interval, and orthopyroxene phenocrysts from an intrusive at 1880 m. The magmatic 3He/4He ratios range from 6 to 24.7 times atmospheric (Ra), which significantly extends the range of values for Mauna Kea volcano. The 3He/4He ratios are lowest (i.e., close to MORB values of ∼8 Ra) near the top of the Mauna Kea section and rise slowly, to 10–12 Ra, at 1000 m below sea level, consistent with results from the HSDP1 core. At depths greater than 1000 m in the core, primarily in the submarine lavas, there are brief periods when the 3He/4He ratios are higher than 14.5 Ra, always returning to a baseline value. Twelve such excursions were identified in the core; all but one are in the submarine section, and most (7) are in the deepest section, at depths of 1950 to 3070 m. The baseline 3He/4He value rises from 10–12 Ra near 1000 m depth to 12–14 Ra at 3000 m. The helium spikes are found only in lavas that are older than 380 Ka in age, based on an age model derived from Ar-Ar data (W. D. Sharp et al., manuscript in preparation, 2003). Excluding the excursions defined by single lava flows (3) and intrusive units (3), the average spike duration is approximately 15 (±9) Ka (n = 6). The high 3He/4He spikes are interpreted as pulses of magma from the center of the actively upwelling Hawaiian hot spot. The short duration of the high 3He/4He excursions suggests that Mauna Kea was never directly over high the 3He/4He component of the plume (during the HSDP2 eruptive period), presumed to be the plume center. Assuming that the Mauna Kea helium spikes result from melting of heterogeneities within the plume, their short duration implies that the length scales of heterogeneities in the solid upwelling mantle are between 60 m and 12 km (for upwelling rates of 2 to 40 cm/yr). The high 3He/4He are associated with high 208Pb/204Pb, and relatively low 143Nd/144Nd, Zr/Nb, and SiO2. The correlations with major elements, trace elements and isotopes demonstrate that helium is coupled to the other geochemical variations, and that the Mauna Kea isotopic variability is caused by heterogeneities within the upwelling plume.This work was supported by EAR/NSF through the Continental Dynamics and Instrumentation and Facilities programs
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